Myth of the American “Golden Age” from http://www.politico.com

By Thomas Piketty

I hadn’t realized when I was growing up in Gary, Indiana, an industrial town on the southern shore of Lake Michigan plagued by discrimination, poverty and bouts of high unemployment, that I was living in the golden era of capitalism. It was a company town, named after the chairman of the board of U.S. Steel. It had the world’s largest integrated steel mill and a progressive school system designed to turn Gary into a melting pot fed by migrants from all over Europe. But by the time I was born in 1943, cracks in the pot were already appearing. To break strikes—to ensure that workers did not fully share in the productivity gains being driven by modern technology—the big steel companies brought African-American workers up from the South who lived in impoverished, separate neighbourhoods.

Smokestacks poured poisons into the air. Periodic layoffs left many families living hand to mouth. Even as a kid, it seemed clear to me that the free market as we knew it was hardly a formula for sustaining a prosperous, happy and healthy society.

So when I went off to college to study economics, I was astonished by what I read. The standard economic texts of the time seemed to be unrelated to the reality I had witnessed growing up in Gary. They said that unemployment shouldn’t exist and that the market led to the best of all possible worlds. But if that were the case, I decided, I wanted to live in a different world. While other economists were obsessed with extolling the virtues of the market economy, I focused a lot of my work on why markets fail, and I devoted much of my Ph.D. thesis at MIT to understanding the causes of inequality.

Nearly half a century later, the problem of inequality has reached crisis proportions. John F. Kennedy, in the spirit of optimism that prevailed at the time I was a college student, once declared that a rising tide lifts all boats. It turns out today that almost all of us now are in the same boat—the one that holds the bottom 99 percent. It is a far different boat, one marked by more poverty at the bottom and a hollowing out of the middle class, than the one occupied by the top 1 percent.

Most disturbing is the realization that the American dream—the notion that we are living in the land of opportunity—is a myth. The life chances of a young American today are more dependent on the income and education of his parents than in many other advanced countries, including “old Europe.”

Now comes Thomas Piketty, who warns us in his justly celebrated new book, Capital in the 21st Century, that matters are only likely to get worse. Above all, he argues that the natural state of capitalism seems to be one of great inequality. When I was a graduate student, we were taught the opposite. The economist Simon Kuznets optimistically wrote that after an initial period of development in which inequality grew, it would begin to decline. Although data at the time were scarce, it might have been true when he wrote it: The inequalities of the 19th and early 20th centuries seemed to be diminishing. This conclusion appeared to be vindicated during the period from World War II to 1980, when the fortunes of the wealthy and the middle class rose together.

But the evidence of the last third of a century suggests this period was an aberration. It was a time of war-induced solidarity when the government kept the playing field level, and the GI Bill of Rights and subsequent civil rights advances meant that there was something to the American dream. Today, inequality is growing dramatically again, and the past three decades or so have proved conclusively that one of the major culprits is trickle-down economics—the idea that the government can just step back and if the rich get richer and use their talents and resources to create jobs, everyone will benefit. It just doesn’t work; the historical data now prove that.

But it has taken us far too long as a country to understand this danger. Changes in the distribution of income and wealth occur slowly, which is why it requires a grand historical perspective of the kind that Piketty provides to get a feel for what is happening.

Ironically enough, the final proof debunking this very Republican idea of trickle-down economics has come from a Democratic administration. President Barack Obama’s banks-first approach to saving the nation from another Great Depression held that by giving money to the banks (rather than to homeowners who had been preyed upon by the banks), the economy would be saved. The administration poured billions into the banks that had brought the country to the brink of ruin, without setting conditions in return. When the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank engage in a rescue, they virtually always impose requirements to ensure the money is used in the way intended. But here, the government merely expressed the hope that the banks would keep credit, the lifeblood of the economy, flowing. And so the banks shrank lending, and paid their executives megabonuses, even though they had almost destroyed their businesses.

Even then, we knew that much of the banks’ profits had been earned not by increasing the efficiency of the economy but by exploitation—through predatory lending, abusive credit-card practices and monopolistic pricing. The full extent of their misdeeds—for instance, the illegal manipulation of key interest rates and foreign exchange, affecting derivatives and mortgages in the amount of hundreds of trillions of dollars—was only just beginning to be fathomed.

Obama promised to stop these abuses, but so far only a single senior banker has gone to jail (along with a very few mid- and low-level employees). The president’s former Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, in his recent book, Stress Test, made a valiant but unsuccessful attempt to defend the administration’s actions, suggesting that there were no alternatives. But Geithner clearly worried excessively about the “moral hazard” of helping underwater homeowners—in other words, encouraging lax borrowing habits—while seeming to care far less about the moral hazard of helping banks, or the culpability of the banks in encouraging excessive indebtedness and in marketing mortgages that put unbearable risks on the poor and middle classes.

In fact, Geithner’s attempts to justify what the administration did only reinforce my belief that the system is rigged. If those who are in charge of making the critical decisions are so “cognitively captured” by the 1 percent, by the bankers, that they see that the only alternative is to give those who caused the crisis hundreds of billions of dollars while leaving workers and homeowners in the lurch, the system is unfair.

This approach also exacerbated one of the country’s most pressing problems: its growing inequality. Only with a vibrant middle class can the economy fully recover and grow faster. The more inequality, the slower the growth—a conclusion now endorsed even by the IMF. Because the less wealthy consume a greater share of their income than do the rich, they expand demand when they have more income. When demand is expanded, jobs are created: In this sense, it is ordinary Americans who are the real job creators. So inequality commands a high price: a weaker economy, marked by lower growth and more instability. It is not very complicated.

None of this is the outcome of inexorable economic forces, either; it’s the result of policies and politics—what we did and didn’t do. If our politics leads to preferential taxation of those who earn income from capital; to an education system in which the children of the rich have access to the best schools, but the children of the poor go to mediocre ones; to exclusive access by the wealthy to talented tax lawyers and offshore banking centers to avoid paying a fair share of taxes—then it is not surprising that there will be a high level of inequality and a low level of opportunity. And that these conditions will grow even worse.
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And now it’s also clear that the high level of economic inequality has translated into gross new forms of political inequality—to the point where we can more aptly be described as having a political system with “one dollar, one vote” than “one person, one vote.” The Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision in January 2010 gave corporations more rights to influence politics than ordinary individuals—without making them, or their officers, really accountable. This year’s follow-on McCutcheon decision eliminated aggregate limits on individual contributions to national candidates and parties. So today, the richer you are, the more you are able to influence the political process and the economic decisions that stem from it, and to rig it all in favor of the 1 percent. Is it any wonder the rich keep getting richer?

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-myth-of-americas-golden-age-108013.html#ixzz35qPGMbwC

What’s happened to tourism?

After 30 years is this all we’ve achieved?
No wonder we’re arguing over the State and federal budgets

Australia’s international tourism industry has expanded in the last 30 years, but a closer look at the current statistics suggest it is not making anywhere near the contribution to the Australian economy and the nation’s prosperity some of the hype might suggest, a former federal adviser on Queensland and northern Australia issues said today.

The claim, by Brisbane-based policy and public issues consultant, John Moran, comes as Australian government’s struggle with post-GFC budget deficits and reduced tax revenues and concerns about the ongoing strength of the mining sector. In the early 1990s Mr Moran was also an adviser to the Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Northern Australia, at a time when Australia’s international tourism potential and environment-heritage issues and tourism draw cards, such as the protection and promotion of Queensland’s wet tropics region, were gaining prominence.

“Australian governments currently seem obsessed with cost cutting to balance their budgets. As Australians today come to grips with the 2014 federal budget and a range of new or increased taxes, service and job cuts and new health charges, they are entitled to ask why the nation’s international tourism industry has only reached such modest levels in 30 years,” Mr Moran said.

“In the context of the current budget and financial debate Australians should get a full and frank discussion about the performance of industries such as this. So let’s put a few numbers out there for closer scrutiny.

“It’s been 30 years since the Hawke Government’s flamboyant tourism minister, John (JJ) Brown, challenged Australia to move beyond ‘piddling koalas’ as its promotional symbol and Paul Hogan first convinced Americans they needed a holiday, yet the annual spend by international visitors is still only about $30 billion from about 6.5 million visitors.

“There was a lot of talk in government and business circles in the 1980s and 90s about tourism being an important new and replacement industry in many areas. Ministers and advisers were always talking it up when we met with local community leaders and business groups. There was also a lot of investment in potential draw cards like outback heritage sites and the protection of environmental and cultural areas like the Queensland wet tropics. Twenty-seven years ago this month (7 May 1987) Brown made a major speech to parliament – Tourism under Labor – outlining the industry’s potential in glowing terms.

“Yet 20 or 30 years later, when the Australian economy is nearly $1.5 trillion in size and the Federal Government’s annual budget is itself nearly $400 billion, international visitors are only providing about $30 billion a year. And in ten years’ time they predict it will still only be $39 billion, spent by about 9.3 million visitors:

Inbound spend to grow 5.2 per cent to $29 billion in 2013−14

• Total inbound expenditure is forecast to grow 5.2 per cent
to $29 billion in 2013−14 and 5.0 per cent to $30 billion in
2014−15.

• The 10 year long-run average growth is for total inbound
expenditure to grow 3.5 per cent per annum on average to
$39 billion.
(Source: Tourism Research Australia – Tourism Forecasts Spring 2013)

“The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade states that international tourism is now earning just over $25 billion in exports, out of total national export earnings in excess of $300 billion. (Source: DFAT – Australia’s trade in goods and services 2012-13)

“That’s useful income, but it’s got to be much higher than that if we are going to continue building national prosperity, in what some call the post-industrial age, as opposed to just cutting spending on services like health and education. Last night’s federal budget deficit was $30 billion for the year – the total size of the current international visitor spend in Australia. And how much of that spend eventually finds its way into government revenues?

“Of particular concern, in terms of national income growth, is that Australia is ranked as one of the biggest tourism earners in the world, even though it is a relatively low performer in terms of international visitor numbers. If $30 billion represents strong earnings by international standards then just what does this industry have to offer a nation trying to fund a $400 billion national budget?

“According to the World Travel and Tourism Council tourism, total domestic and international, has gone from being one of Australia’s top ten GDP industries in the 1990s to 15th place in 2013. It drops to 16th place by 2023. (WTTC rankings, November 2013.)

“Here in Queensland, where the State Government is describing tourism as one of the four pillars of the State economy, the picture is just as concerning. In the scheme of things there doesn’t seem to be a lot of foreign exchange being earned.

“To the end of September 2013 just over two million international visitors spent just under $4 billion in Queensland, which has an economy nearly $300 billion in size and a State Government budget approaching $50 billion.

“According to Tourism and Events Qld, net taxes on tourism products arising from tourism consumption in Queensland last year raised $951 million in federal, state and local government revenues, and was 27.4% of total taxes on tourism products as a whole. (Source: Tourism Research Australia – State Tourism Satellite Accounts 2012-13)

“There is clearly the potential to earn a lot more from tourism than we currently are. It is time for a renewed debate on how to grow our export income, and in turn government revenues, in this area,” Mr Moran said.

End
Media inquiries: John Moran 07-3366 9010; 0410-603 278